日前荷源联合调峰主从博弈决策

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201808030

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于直接统计法获取风电预测误差的概率分布,分析其对日前调峰决策的影响;将高载能负荷与常规电源相联合以提高系统动态调峰能力;针对荷源双方分属不同管理体系,需非集中调控,多目标优化不再适用的情况,采用博弈决策方法。从系统层面出发,将风险惩罚最小的可靠性目标和调峰成本最小的经济性目标作为博弈双方,可靠性为主,建立计及风电预测误差的日前荷源联合调峰主从博弈决策模型,将模型转为两层规划模型,再转为广义优化模型进行求解,获得主从目标均衡时的调峰计划。算例验证主从博弈决策的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 风电预测误差, 电力缺失和弃风风险, 荷源联合, 动态调峰, 调峰成本, 主从博弈

Abstract: The probability distribution of wind power prediction error is obtained based on direct statistics, and the influence of the error on the day-ahead peak load regulation decision is analyzed. Energy-intensive load and conventional source are combined to improve the system’s dynamic peak load regulation capability. Since the power source and the energy-intensive load belong to different regulation systems and need to be regulated in a non-centralized way, the multi-objective optimization is not suitable and the game theory is adopted. The reliability goal minimizing the risk punishment and the economic goal minimizing the cost of peak load regulation are taken as two participants in game theory; and the reliability is emphasized to establish Stackelberg game decision model for load-source associated day-ahead peak load regulation. This game decision model is firstly converted into a two-layer programming model, and then further converted into the generalized optimization model. By solving the generalized optimization model, the peak regulation plan with the master-slave target reaching equilibrium is obtained. The simulation results show its feasibility and effectiveness.

Key words: wind power prediction error, risks of lack of electricity and wind abandonment, load-source association, dynamic peak load regulation capacity, peak load regulation cost, Stackelberg game

中图分类号:

TM743

刘文颖, 李亚龙, 郭鹏, 梁安琪, 王维洲. 日前荷源联合调峰主从博弈决策[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(8): 3066-3073.

Liu Wenying, Li Yalong, Guo Peng, Liang Anqi, Wang Weizhou. Stackelberg Game Decision for Lord-Source Associated Day-Ahead Peak Load Regulation[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(8): 3066-3073.

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