复杂项目多级动态挣值管理数字化模型及应用

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.25-0332

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现有工程项目的经济性管理工作通常基于组织架构开展，针对在复杂工程项目开展时呈现出流程繁杂、主体责任难以明确等问题，提出了一种面向复杂工程项目的多级动态挣值管理数字化模型。将传统的成本绩效指标扩展至工程资源效用维度，把成本的挣得值分解为不同工程资源的挣得值细分，使管理者既能够基于传统的“进度‒成本”绩效指标对项目进行动态监管，还能够面向工程资源的效用水平开展更精细化的成本管控。依据仿真建模架构提出了一种面向动态挣值分析的混合整数规划模型，通过求解该仿真优化模型实现了对项目完工时间的实时预测和动态关键路径的准确识别。仿真实验结果表明：该仿真优化模型具有较高求解效率，可满足大规模级别的复杂工程项目需求。基于所提出的动态挣值数字化管理模型，开发了相应的应用软件系统，并应用于某型航空产品的设计研制工程项目，也是挣值管理相关概念理论在国内实际复杂航空产品设计研制场景中的一次重要应用与验证。

关键词: 挣值管理, 成本工程, 混合整数规划, 动态关键路径, 经济性, 数字化模型

Abstract:

The economic management of existing engineering projects is usually based on organizational structure, which presents problems such as complex processes and difficulty in clarifying main responsibilities when applied to complex engineering projects. In response to this limitation, a multi-level digital model of dynamic earned value management is proposed for complex engineering projects, which extends the traditional cost performance indicators to engineering resource utility indicators, thereby decomposing the earned value of costs into segmented earned values of different engineering resources. This enables managers to dynamically supervise projects based on traditional "schedule-cost" performance indicators and carry out more refined cost control based on the utility level of engineering resources. Based on a simulation modeling framework,a mixed integer programming model is proposed for dynamic earned value analysis. Real-time prediction of project completion time and accurate identification of dynamic critical paths are achieved through solving the model. Computational experiments show that the model has high solving efficiency and meets the requirements of large-scale complex engineering projects. Based on the proposed digital model of dynamic earned value management, a corresponding application software system is developed and applied to the design and development project of a certain type of aviation product. This is also important application and verification of the concept theory of earned value management in the actual complex aviation product design and development scenarios in China.

Key words: earned value management, cost engineering, mixed integer programming, dynamic critical path, economy, digital model

中图分类号:

TP391.9

王伟,刘东,崔新豪等 . 复杂项目多级动态挣值管理数字化模型及应用[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2026, 38(5): 1350-1364.

Wang Wei,Liu Dong,Cui Xinhao,et al . Multi-level Digital Model of Dynamic Earned Value Management for Complex Engineering Projects and Its Applications[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2026, 38(5): 1350-1364.

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工作项	项目/工作项名称	工期计划/d	成本计划/万元	工程资源计划
工作项	项目/工作项名称	工期计划/d	成本计划/万元	资源名称	数量	单价/元	总价/万元
1	某器组件一体化制造工艺设计项目	150	8.4	管理人工r₁/工时	1 200	55	6.600
1	某器组件一体化制造工艺设计项目	150	8.4	办公设施r₂/d	150	120	1.800
1.1	图纸与工艺设计	50	5.22	设计人工r₃/工时	720	45	3.240
				设备A折旧r₄/d	50	95	0.475
				能源动力费r₅/万元	1.5	10 000	1.500
1.2	样品加工	60	6.42	车间1人工r₆/工时	480	38	1.820
				材料A r₇/kg	100	150	1.500
				材料B r₈/kg	5	345	0.170
				设备B折旧r₉/d	60	122	0.730
				能源动力费r₅/万元	2.2	10 000	2.200
1.3	试验测试	40	5.03	试验人工r₁₀/工时	720	38	2.730
				设备C折旧r₁₁/d	40	85	0.340
				油料A r₁₂/kg	385	12	0.460
				能源动力费r₅/万元	1.5	10 000	1.500

工作项	项目进展时刻							工程资源实际消耗
工作项	计划进度/ %	计划成本/ 万元	实际进度/ %	实际成本/ 万元	挣得值/ 万元	成本绩效 CPI	进度绩效 SPI	资源编号	计划数量	消耗数量	资源成本/ 万元	挣得资源/ 万元	成本绩效 CPI	资源效用 RUI
1	47	3.92	47	4.41	3.92	0.91	1.0	r₁	560	595	3.34	3.08	0.92	0.94
1	47	3.92	47	4.41	3.92	0.91	1.0	r₂	70	81	0.97	0.84	0.86	0.86
1.1	100	5.22	100	5.61	5.22	0.93	1.0	r₃	720	760	3.49	3.24	0.93	0.95
								r₄	50	52	0.52	0.48	0.91	0.96
								r₅	1.5	1.6	1.60	1.50	0.94	0.94
								r₆	160	190	0.79	0.36	0.46	0.51
								r₇	33.3	56.0	0.92	0.30	0.32	0.36
1.2	33	2.14	20	2.68	1.28	0.48	0.60	r₈	1.7	1.4	0.05	0.03	0.69	0.71
								r₉	20	20	0.26	0.15	0.56	0.60
								r₅	0.70	0.65	0.65	0.44	0.68	0.68
1.3	0	0	0	0	0			r₁₀	0	0	0	0
								r₁₁	0	0	0	0
								r₁₂	0	0	0	0
								r₅	0	0	0	0
总体		11.28		12.7	10.42	0.82	0.92	总体	1617.2	1757.65	12.59	10.42	0.73	0.75

编号	工时	编号	工时
1	425	21	666
2	635	22	631
3	161	23	151
4	369	24	475
5	376	25	438
6	608	26	110
7	665	27	211
8	453	28	703
9	424	29	589
10	328	30	457
11	423	31	581
12	194	32	532
13	433	33	363
14	189	34	534
15	343	35	240
16	198	36	373
17	181	37	597
18	581	38	293
19	525	39	541
20	318	40	206

约束关系	工作项约束关系
包含关系集Γ	(1,6) (1,7) (1,8) (1,9) (1,10) (2,11) (2,12) (2,13) (2,14) (3,15) (3,16) (3,17) (3,18) (4,19) (4,20) (5,21) (5,22) (5,23) (5,24) (5,25) (6,26) (6,27) (6,28) (7,29) (7,30) (7,31) (7,32) (26,33) (26,34) (26,35) (35,36) (35,37) (37,38) (37,39) (37,40)
紧前关系集P	(2,3) (3,4) (4,5) (6,7) (7,8) (8,9) (11,12) (12,13) (15,16) (16,17) (19,20) (21,22) (22,23) (24,25) (26,27) (27,28) (29,30) (31,32) (33,34) (39,40) (28,4)
互斥关系集H	(21,24) (36,37)

算例规模	解算结果
算例规模	目标值	关键路径数	计算时间/s
100	7 686	14	<1.0
200	7 436	12	<1.0
400	16 246	29	<1.0
600	21 449	36	1.0
1 000	65 956	119	1.4