考虑病毒释放、传播与作用过程的传染病传播微观仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-0485

系统仿真学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (10): 2533-2544.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-0485

• 论文 • 上一篇

考虑病毒释放、传播与作用过程的传染病传播微观仿真研究

房志明¹^,², 袁圣东¹^,², 黄戈³, 杨景骞¹^,², 黄中意¹^,²

^1.上海理工大学管理学院，上海 200093
^2.上海理工大学智慧应急管理学院，上海 200093
^3.招商局工业科技(上海)有限公司，上海 200093

收稿日期:2024-05-07 修回日期:2024-07-10 出版日期:2025-10-20 发布日期:2025-10-21
通讯作者: 黄中意
第一作者简介:房志明(1986-)，男，教授，博士，研究方向为应急与人工智能、应急技术与装备研发、公共安全信息传播与治理。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(72374141);国家自然科学基金(52102414);上海市科委扬帆计划(21YF1431200)

Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action

Fang Zhiming¹^,², Yuan Shengdong¹^,², Huang Ge³, Yang Jingqian¹^,², Huang Zhongyi¹^,²

^1.Business School, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
^2.School of Intelligent Emergency Management, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
^3.China Merchants Industry Technology (Shanghai) Co. , Ltd, Shanghai 200093, China

Received:2024-05-07 Revised:2024-07-10 Online:2025-10-20 Published:2025-10-21
Contact: Huang Zhongyi

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决现有感染风险评估方法多通过数学模型或仿真模拟来评估感染概率，缺乏对空气流通与个体感染概率关系的分析，提出了一种基于室内空气流通的传染病感染风险预测模型。在微观尺度下将空间离散化为网格格点，通过结合CFD数值仿真的方式，完整模拟了病毒飞沫释放、传播及作用的整个过程。仿真结果表明：在无障碍物房间中，模型在无风及低风速条件下所预测的室内总病毒载量与CFD仿真数值的误差均保持在10%以内；在有障碍物场景下，不同通风条件时，模型仿真与CFD仿真的房间内最大总病毒载量误差均保持在15%左右；模型在感染风险预测方面的结果与实际情况基本吻合，可以在一定程度上为疫情防控工作提供参考。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 感染风险预测, 微观模型, CFD仿真, 空气传播

Abstract:

Existing infection risk assessment methods mostly evaluate infection probability through mathematical models or simulation, but they lack analysis of the relationship between air circulation and individual infection probability. This study proposed a risk prediction model for infectious disease transmission based on indoor air circulation. At the microscopic scale, the space was discretized into grid points.By integrating CFD numerical simulation, the entire process of virus droplet release, transmission, and action was fully simulated. The simulation results show that in an obstacle-free room, the error between the total indoor viral load predicted by the model under windless and low wind speed conditions and the CFD simulation values remains within 10%. In the presence of obstacles and under different ventilation conditions, the error of the maximum total viral load between the model simulation and CFD simulation remains around 15%. The results of the model in predicting infection risks are basically consistent with the actual condition and can provide a reference for epidemic prevention and control work to a certain extent.

Key words: COVID-19, infection risk prediction, microscopic model, CFD simulation, airborne transmission

中图分类号:

TP391.9

房志明,袁圣东,黄戈等 . 考虑病毒释放、传播与作用过程的传染病传播微观仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2025, 37(10): 2533-2544.

Fang Zhiming,Yuan Shengdong,Huang Ge,et al . Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2025, 37(10): 2533-2544.

图/表 17

图1

图2

图3

表1

周围格点飞沫数量分布

格点	相对位置	咳嗽情况下占比/%	说话情况下占比/%
P0	$(i, j)$	19.18	40.18
P1	$(i - 3, j - 1)$	0.86	/
P2	$(i - 2, j - 1)$	1.11	/
P3	$(i - 1, j - 1)$	/	0.46
P4	$(i - 3, j)$	5.29	/
P5	$(i - 2, j)$	16.46	/
P6	$(i - 1, j)$	55.39	58.96
P7	$(i - 3, j + 1)$	0.68	/
P8	$(i - 2, j + 1)$	1.04	/
P9	$(i - 1, j + 1)$	/	0.40

表1

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

图11

图12

表2

图13

表 3

图14

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房间类型	时间/s	无风			0.5 m/s			1.0 m/s			1.5 m/s
房间类型	时间/s	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%
无障碍物	5	1 798	1 687	6.2	1 800	1 788	0.6	1 799	1 677	6.8	1 669	1 529	8.3
	10	1 600	1 470	8.1	1 519	1 371	9.7	703	952	35.4	743	513	30.8
	15	1 433	1 343	6.2	942	1 039	10.3	512	445	13.0	327	97	70.3
障碍物	5	1 998	1 754	12.2	1 869	1 810	3.1	1 847	1 772	4.0	1 850	1 734	6.3
	10	1 786	1 500	16.1	1 652	1 470	11.0	1 645	1 488	9.5	1 651	1 426	13.6
	15	1 600	1 354	15.3	1 574	1 351	14.1	1 574	1 357	13.7	1 444	1 293	10.4
教室	5	1 836	1 749	4.7	1 695	1 851	9.2	1 725	1 823	5.7	1 759	1 776	1.0
	10	1 401	1 505	7.5	1 401	1 543	10.2	1 417	1 509	6.5	1 443	1 460	1.2
	15	1 224	1 365	11.5	1 214	1 369	12.8	1 249	1 273	2.0	1 037	903	12.9
会议室	5	1 799	1 749	2.7	1 693	1 851	9.4	1 716	1 823	6.3	1 739	1 776	2.1
	10	1 590	1 505	5.3	1 491	1 543	3.5	1 488	1 514	1.8	1 576	1 515	3.8
	15	1 400	1 365	2.5	1 395	1 371	1.7	1 400	1 362	2.7	1 235	1 253	1.5

桌	到达时间	离开时间
A	12:01	13:23
B	11:37	12:54
C	12:03	13:18
D	11:34	13:18
E	13:00	14:19

考虑病毒释放、传播与作用过程的传染病传播微观仿真研究

Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action

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