装备数字孪生可信评估框架研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0057

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

装备数字孪生大规模落地应用的一个关键瓶颈问题是缺乏系统有效的可信评估方法。本文分析了装备数字孪生的动态演化性、虚实交互性等关键特征，提出了装备数字孪生可信评估框架，包括数字孪生的可信内涵、多维多层次可信评估指标体系和可信评估方法论，并以机械臂数字孪生为例说明了整个评估过程，可以为数字孪生的评估、构建提供方向性指导。

关键词: 装备数字孪生, 可信评估, 动态演化, 指标体系, 建模仿真

Abstract:

A key bottleneck in the large-scale application of equipment digital twin is the lack of systematic and effective credibility assessment methods. This paper analyzes the dynamic evolution, virtual-real interactivity and other key features of the equipment digital twin. A credibility assessment framework for the equipment digital twin is proposed, including the credibility connotation of the digital twin, a multi-dimensional and multi-level credibility assessment index system and a credibility assessment methodology. The whole assessment process is illustrated with the robotic arm digital twin as an example, which can provide directional guidance for the assessment and construction of the digital twin.

Key words: equipment digital twin, credibility assessment, dynamic evolution, index system, modeling and simulation

中图分类号:

TP 391.9

陆涵, 张霖, 王昆玉, 黄泽军, 程鸿博, 崔晋. 装备数字孪生可信评估框架研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2023, 35(7): 1455-1471.

Han Lu, Lin Zhang, Kunyu Wang, Zejun Huang, Hongbo Cheng, Jin Cui. A Framework on Equipment Digital Twin Credibility Assessment[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(7): 1455-1471.

图/表 17

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表1

数据指标

考察对象	指标	含义
数据源	适配性 $Z s p S$	产生、采集、传递数据等符合性能要求
数据源	权威性 $Z q w S$	设备厂商、人员机构、软件等权威可靠
数据体	真实性 $Z z s S$	到达系统的数据与实际情况一致且及时有效
数据体	完备性 $Z w b S$	数据充分包含所需信息，且规范、取用便捷

表1

表2

静态指标

考察对象	指标	含义
需模映射	规范性 $Z g f J$	采用规范的形式化方法分析表征需求与模型
需模映射	完整性 $Z w z J$	需求被系统完整地关联映射到了多维模型
单维属性	准确性 $Z z q 1 J$	图2各单维度机理、参数准确反映物理装备属性
单维属性	独立性 $Z d l J$	各单维模型及其内部属性、功能相对独立
多维耦合	准确性 $Z z q 2 J$	对耦合效应的描述清晰、简洁，与实际结果一致
多维耦合	有界性 $Z y j J$	耦合过程无环或有合理的时值边界约束

表2

表3

动态指标

考察对象	指标	含义
演化驱动	辨识性 $Z b s D$	物理系统发生变化时能够正确辨识模型应变部位
演化驱动	灵敏性 $Z l m D$	实现变化部位辨识所需的最小数据波动量
演化过程	时效性 $Z s x D$	演化复杂度与相应演化所耗时间的比值
演化过程	收敛性 $Z s l D$	虚实差异性在演化与不确定性影响下的收敛情况
演化结果	系统性 $Z x t D$	与驱动部位相关且影响需求的部位参与演化传递
演化结果	准确性 $Z z q D$	可测对象的多时间窗输出与实际输出的差异程度

表3

表4

图6

图7

表5

可信评估方法清单

一级目录	二级目录	三级目录	四级目录
软件评估F1	代码检查F₁₁	词法检查F₁₁₁
		语法检查F₁₁₂
		语义检查F₁₁₃
	算法分析F₁₂	可读性分析F₁₂₁
		健壮性分析F₁₂₂
		时间复杂度分析F₁₂₃
		空间复杂度分析F₁₂₄
		神经网络结构分析F₁₂₅
	执行测试F₁₃	执行监控F₁₃₁
		执行分析F₁₃₂
		边界测试F₁₃₃
		压力测试F₁₃₄
		执行定位F₁₃₅
		分离测试F₁₃₆
	数据集验证F₁₄	数据集划分法F₁₄₁	留出法F₁₄₁₁
			留一法F₁₄₁₂
			k折交叉验证F₁₄₁₃
		分类问题评估法F₁₄₂	准确率F₁₄₂₁
			精准率F₁₄₂₂
			召回率F₁₄₂₃
			F1分数F₁₄₂₄
			ROC曲线F₁₄₂₅
			AUC F₁₄₂₆
		回归问题评估法F₁₄₃	MAE F₁₄₃₁
			MSE F₁₄₃₂
			RMSE F₁₄₃₃
			MSLE F₁₄₃₄
			MAPE F₁₄₃₅
主观方法F₂	人工审核F₂₁
	图灵测试F₂₂
	专家打分F₂₃
	多方校验F₂₄
	经验参数对比F₂₅
半形式化方法F₃	一致性检查F₃₁
	图分析F₃₂	数据流图分析F₃₂₁
		时序图分析F₃₂₂
		连接图分析F₃₂₃
		状态机图分析F₃₂₄
		结构图分析F₃₂₅
		键合图分析F₃₂₆
		因果图分析F₃₂₇
形式化方法F₄	归纳推理F₄₁
	断言检查F₄₂
	证据理论F₄₃
	形式审查F₄₄
	逻辑推断F₄₅
结果比较F₅	灵敏度分析F₅₁
	概率统计F₅₂	假设性检验F₅₂₁	置信区间法F₅₂₁₁
			T检验F₅₂₁₂
			卡方检验F₅₂₁₃
			Hotelling's T2 tests F₅₂₁₄
		非假设性检验F₅₂₂	Theil's inequality F₅₂₂₁
			Multivariate analysis of variance F₅₂₂₂
			回归测试 F₅₂₂₃
	确定性数据分析F₅₃	时域数据分析F₅₃₁
		频域数据分析F₅₃₂
		时频域数据分析F₅₃₃
		机器学习F₅₃₄
	误差效应评估F₅₄
集成分析F₆	AHP类F₆₁
	贝叶斯网络F₆₂
	灰色关联度分析F₆₃
	复杂网络分析F₆₄
演化分析F₇	演化时效性F₇₁	控制系统实时性测试F₇₁₁
	演化时效性F₇₁	软件系统实时性测试F₇₁₂
	演化准确性F₇₂	时间域分析F₇₂₁
	演化准确性F₇₂	频域分析F₇₂₂
	演化平稳性F₇₃	李雅普诺夫稳定性理论F₇₃₁
	演化平稳性F₇₃	算法收敛性分析F₇₃₂
	演化系统性F₇₄
数据检查F₈	数据认证F₈₁	协议认证F₈₁₁
		机构认证F₈₁₂
		时效认证F₈₁₃
	数据校验F₈₂	逻辑关系校验F₈₂₁
		自身冗余信息校验F₈₂₂
		行业标准对照F₈₂₃
		数据价值校验F₈₂₄
		实验校验F₈₂₅
	数据源分析F₈₃	性能分析F₈₃₁
		环境分析F₈₃₂
		布局关联分析F₈₃₃

表5

图8

图9

图10

图11

图12

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考察对象	含义
能力成熟度	包含团队协作性、管理规范性、团队权威性等
模型成熟度	包含可重用性、安全性、健壮性、可持续性等

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