基于Agent的多代数码产品扩散仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0678

系统仿真学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 1393-1401.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0678

基于Agent的多代数码产品扩散仿真研究

乔健, 夏婧雯, 王攀

西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安 710072

收稿日期:2019-12-27 修回日期:2020-03-14 出版日期:2020-07-25 发布日期:2020-07-15
作者简介:乔健(1965-),男,江苏扬州,博士,副教授,研究方向为系统仿真、创新扩散。

Simulation Reach on Multi-Generation Digital Product Diffusion Based on Agent

Qiao Jian, Xia Jingwen, Wang Pan

School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China

Received:2019-12-27 Revised:2020-03-14 Online:2020-07-25 Published:2020-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 数码产品具有多代并存扩散的特点,多代产品扩散模型是研究其扩散规律的重要工具,但现有模型忽略了一些显著影响扩散过程的产品、消费者和环境因素。采用ABMS、模糊推理、复杂网络和效用理论,提出一种考虑了这些因素的多代数码产品扩散模型。实验结果显示,该模型能很好地再现iPhone手机的扩散过程,说明历史数据充分时其模拟/预测能力良好,可作为数码产品营销分析与决策的辅助工具。

关键词: 产品扩散, 数码产品, 多代, ABMS

Abstract: Digital products have the characteristics of multi-generation coexistence and diffusion, and the multi-generation product diffusion model is an important tool to study it. The existing models ignores some factors of the product, consumer and environment that significantly affect the diffusion process. A multi-generation digital product diffusion model is proposed by using the ABMS, fuzzy inference, complex network and utility theories. The experiment results show that the model can playback the diffusion process of iPhones, which indicates that the model has a good simulation/prediction capability when the historical data is sufficient, and can be a marketing analysis and decision-making tool for digital products.

Key words: product diffusion, digital product, multi-generation, ABMS

中图分类号:

TP391.9

乔健, 夏婧雯, 王攀. 基于Agent的多代数码产品扩散仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(7): 1393-1401.

Qiao Jian, Xia Jingwen, Wang Pan. Simulation Reach on Multi-Generation Digital Product Diffusion Based on Agent[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(7): 1393-1401.

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基于Agent的多代数码产品扩散仿真研究

Simulation Reach on Multi-Generation Digital Product Diffusion Based on Agent

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