基于LWSVR的繁忙机场航班滑出时间预测

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0598

系统仿真学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 927-935.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0598

基于LWSVR的繁忙机场航班滑出时间预测

邢志伟¹, 姜松岳¹, 罗谦², 罗晓²

1. 中国民航大学电子信息与自动化学院,天津 300300;
2. 中国民用航空总局第二研究所,四川成都 610041

收稿日期:2018-09-07 修回日期:2018-12-17 出版日期:2020-05-18 发布日期:2020-05-15
作者简介:邢志伟(1970-),男,辽宁沈阳,博士,教授,研究方向为民航装备与系统、机场交通信息与控制;姜松岳(1990-),男,山东烟台,硕士,研究方向为机场交通信息与控制。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(U1533203)

Prediction of Flight Taxi-out Time in A Busy Airport Based on LWSVR

Xing Zhiwei¹, Jiang Songyue¹, Luo Qian², Luo Xiao²

1. College of Electronic Information and Automation, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;
2. The Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation Administration of China, Chengdu 610041, China

Received:2018-09-07 Revised:2018-12-17 Online:2020-05-18 Published:2020-05-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对繁忙机场航班滑出时间预测准确率低的问题,结合局部回归和加权支持向量回归,提出基于局部加权支持向量回归的离港航班滑出时间预测模型。该模型采用K最近邻方法,减小训练样本集容量,并为每个预测样本构建一个预测模型。通过计算训练样本与预测样本间的马氏距离,来优化加权支持向量回归中高斯核加权函数的带宽参数,获得加权系数。结合某机场离港航班数据仿真分析,实验结果表明模型在误差允许范围内的预测准确率达到83.33%,模型更加稳定。

关键词: 滑出时间, 局部回归, 加权支持向量回归, K最近邻, 高斯加权函数

Abstract: Aiming at improving the accuracy of predicting the flight taxi-out time in a busy airport, based on the local regression and weighted support vector regression, a prediction model of the locally weighted support vector regression is proposed. The model uses the K nearest neighbor method to reduce the capacity of the training sample set and build a predictive model for each predicted sample. The bandwidth parameter of the Gaussian weighting function is optimized with the Mahalanobis distance between the forecast sample and training samples, and the weighting coefficients are obtained. Combining the airport departure flight data in simulation analysis, the experimental results show that the accuracy of LWSVR within the error range is 83.33%, and the model is more stable.

Key words: taxi-out time, local regression, weighted support vector regression, KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor), Gaussian weighting function

中图分类号:

U8
TP391.9

邢志伟, 姜松岳, 罗谦, 罗晓. 基于LWSVR的繁忙机场航班滑出时间预测[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(5): 927-935.

Xing Zhiwei, Jiang Songyue, Luo Qian, Luo Xiao. Prediction of Flight Taxi-out Time in A Busy Airport Based on LWSVR[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(5): 927-935.

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基于LWSVR的繁忙机场航班滑出时间预测

Prediction of Flight Taxi-out Time in A Busy Airport Based on LWSVR

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