关键词: 海啸, 可视化仿真, 风险评估, 人口分布建模

Abstract: Based on the effectively modeling and visual simulation of the potential tsunami event in the South China Sea, the tsunami generation, propagation, runup and inundation could be visually simulated with multiple scenarios. The inundation probability, the flood inundation area and degree were computed. The location and function of buildings/critical facilities in the study area were extracted and classified by GIS analysis and image processing technology. Then the population distribution was effectively modeled and the vulnerability of people response was estimated for risk assessment combining with the geographical information and the historical disasters record. This improved method considered the inundation probability of tsunami, the flood speed, depth, and other factors such as population density and available evacuation time, etc. The tsunami risk map was generated based on the decision tree classification method, which helps find the high risk areas for early warning and assists in disaster management and disaster prevention and mitigation.

Key words: tsunami, visual simulation, risk assessment, population distribution modeling