关键词: 台风灾害, 分布鲁棒机会约束, 紧急风险调度, 电热综合能源系统, 最优决策

Abstract:

The spatiotemporal randomness of typhoon movement paths leads to uncertain operational risks for integrated electricity-heat systems (IEHS), making it difficult to balance system risk controllability and dispatch economy. To tackle this problem, an emergency risk dispatch (ERD) method for IEHS under typhoon disasters is proposed. An ERD model for IEHS under typhoon disasters is established within the model predictive control framework. Based on the uncertainty of typhoon wind speed prediction, a moment-based ambiguity set for uncertain equipment component failures is constructed, and a distributionally robust chance-constrained ERD model is formulated. An approximation method based on worst-case conditional value-at-risk (WC-CVaR) theory is adopted to equivalently reformulate and solve the proposed model. A system risk quantification index model is developed from the perspectives of the probability and severity of risk occurrence. Simulation results demonstrate that, when the risk coefficient is 0.15, the controllable risk and economic dispatch of the integrated energy system under typhoon disasters can be balanced, verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method and dispatch strategy.

Key words: typhoon disaster, distributionally robust chance constraint, emergency risk dispatch, integrated electricity-heat system, optimal decision-making