面向深度不确定系统的情景计算方法

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201810002

系统仿真学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 3608-3615.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201810002

面向深度不确定系统的情景计算方法

刘奕¹, 王刚桥¹, 吴志鹏², 樊振强², 陈永强^2,*

1. 清华大学工程物理系公共安全研究院,北京 100084;
2. 北京大学工学院力学与工程科学系,北京 100871

收稿日期:2018-08-21 修回日期:2018-09-13 出版日期:2018-10-10 发布日期:2019-01-04
作者简介:刘奕(1973),女,山东,博士,副研究员,博导,研究方向为应急管理与决策。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0803300),国家自然科学基金(71673158, 91646101, 11332001)

Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems

Liu Yi¹, Wang Gangqiao¹, Wu Zhipeng², Fan Zhenqiang², Chen Yongqiang^2,*

1. Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received:2018-08-21 Revised:2018-09-13 Online:2018-10-10 Published:2019-01-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 提出了一种面向深度不确定系统的情景计算方法,该方法由三部分组成：混合建模、多样性计算、交互验证。混合建模是基于已有模型和相关数据,实现快速高效的动态建模;多样性计算指通过大规模计算实现对系统多样化演化的分析和预测;交互验证是基于人工计算系统与真实客观系统之间的交互验证保障情景计算结果的有效和可靠。给出了地震波经过建筑物后的传播与叠加效应计算和交通与驾驶行为计算两个算例,分析了情景计算方法对不确定系统仿真计算的有效性与应用前景。

关键词: 深度不确定系统, 情景计算, 多样性, 混合建模

Abstract: A method of scenario computing is developed for modeling systems with deep uncertainty. The method consists three complementary parts: hybrid modelling, diverse computing, and interactive validation. Hybrid modelling is to dynamically develop models with merging historical knowledges and observed information. Diversity computation is to simulate multiple plausible scenarios about system future. Interactive validation helps scenario computing process being on the right way instead of deviating. Two cases are provided in this paper applying scenario computing, one is earthquake and the other is driving and transportation. The results show good performance of scenario computing method in modeling uncertainty systems.

Key words: scenario computing, deep uncertainty system, diversity, hybrid modelling

中图分类号:

TP391.9

刘奕, 王刚桥, 吴志鹏, 樊振强, 陈永强. 面向深度不确定系统的情景计算方法[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(10): 3608-3615.

Liu Yi, Wang Gangqiao, Wu Zhipeng, Fan Zhenqiang, Chen Yongqiang. Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(10): 3608-3615.

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面向深度不确定系统的情景计算方法

Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems

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