机场地面交叉口冲突概率估计模型

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201612006

系统仿真学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 2918-2924.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201612006

机场地面交叉口冲突概率估计模型

潘卫军¹, 罗小林², 康瑞¹, 黄宸宇¹, 夏正洪¹, 邱文彬³

1.中国民用航空飞行学院,四川广汉 618307;
2.中国民用航空西北地区空中交通管理局,陕西西安 710082;
3.中国民用航空西南地区空中交通管理局,四川成都 610202

收稿日期:2015-03-24 修回日期:2015-09-02 出版日期:2016-12-08 发布日期:2020-08-13
作者简介:潘卫军(1968-),男,湖北黄冈,博士,教授,研究方向为空管仿真以及航路流量和安全管理;罗小林(1987-),男,四川广元,硕士,研究方向为空中交通管理。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(U1433126)

Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection

Pan Weijun¹, Luo Xiaolin², Kang Rui¹, Huang Chenyu¹, Xia Zhenghong¹, Qiu Wenbin³

1. Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China;
2. Northwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation of China, Xi’an 710082, China;
3. Southwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation of China, Chengdu 610202, China

Received:2015-03-24 Revised:2015-09-02 Online:2016-12-08 Published:2020-08-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高机场地面运行安全,预防航空器产生滑行冲突,研究了基于航空器特性的机场地面交叉口冲突概率并建立了相应的估计模型。该模型将发动机喷流影响有效距离因素引入到交叉口冲突范围中,描述了航空器滑行冲突的过程。结合实际运行数据对模型进行了验证和数据分析,探讨了速度区间对模型的影响。模型针对三种运动状态航空器滑行冲突概率的变化进行分析,当速度变化区间为0.5 m/s时,冲突概率分析较为理想,能在贴近客观实际的前提下较好地提高冲突概率计算的准确性。仿真结果表明：减速等待避让策略能够有效减小航空器冲突概率,预防事故的发生;该模型能实时计算航空器的冲突概率,可用于航空器地面冲突预警。

关键词: 空中交通管理, 机场地面交叉口, 速度区间, 冲突概率

Abstract: Based on aircraft characteristics, the assessment model of conflict probability at airport surface intersection was studied to ensure the safety of airport ground safety. The engine jet effect distance was introduced to expand the scope of intersection conflict, describing the process of aircraft conflict. The model with the actual operation data was verified, and the speed interval's impact on the model was analyzed and discussed. In the view of three motion states of aircraft, this model analyzed the variations in conflict probability. When speed variation range is 0.5m/s, probability analysis of the conflict is more ideal, and can improve the accuracy of calculating the probability of conflict under the premise of objective reality. The results show that: decelerating and holding avoidance measures can reduce the aircraft conflict probability effectively, thus defending the occurrence of accidents. This method can accurately calculate the conflict probability of aircraft, suitable for aircraft ground conflict alert.

Key words: air traffic management, airport surface intersection, speed range, conflict probability

中图分类号:

V355

潘卫军, 罗小林, 康瑞, 黄宸宇, 夏正洪, 邱文彬. 机场地面交叉口冲突概率估计模型[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2016, 28(12): 2918-2924.

Pan Weijun, Luo Xiaolin, Kang Rui, Huang Chenyu, Xia Zhenghong, Qiu Wenbin. Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2016, 28(12): 2918-2924.

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机场地面交叉口冲突概率估计模型

Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection

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