基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0578

系统仿真学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 782-791.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0578

基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法研究

邵璐璐^1,2, 韩继红¹, 牛侃², 刘小虎¹, 邵芳²

1. 战略支援部队信息工程大学,河南郑州 450001;
2. 中国人民解放军31007部队,北京 100079

收稿日期:2018-08-29 修回日期:2018-12-20 出版日期:2020-05-18 发布日期:2020-05-15
作者简介:邵璐璐(1982-),女,河南周口,博士生,研究方向为装备保障、系统可靠性分析;韩继红(1966-),女,山西忻州,博士,教授,博导,研究方向为网络与信息安全、系统工程;牛侃(1988-),男,河南郑州,硕士,研究方向为信息系统安全。

Research on Failure Modes Analysis Based on Weighted Evidence Theory

Shao Lulu^1,2, Han Jihong¹, Niu Kan², Liu Xiaohu¹, Shao Fang²

1. Information Engineering University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
2. 31007 Troops of PLA, Beijing 100079, China

Received:2018-08-29 Revised:2018-12-20 Online:2020-05-18 Published:2020-05-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对采用传统风险优先数方法进行故障模式分析中存在不同故障模式的风险优先数值相等、风险参数的微小变化引起故障模式危害度等级波动较大的问题,从处理不确定性问题的方法论角度,提出了一种基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法。该方法将专家在风险参数评估过程中的认知不确定性分为基本可信度和专家属性权重分别进行量化,进而对认知不确定性进行传递和处理,实现了故障模式危害度等级的有序排列。实例分析及与现有研究结果的比较,验证了提出方法的实用性和有效性。

关键词: 加权证据理论, 故障模式、影响和危害度分析, 认知不确定性, 风险优先数, 电子系统

Abstract: Aiming at the risk priority numbers of different failure modes being equal and the criticality of the fault modes changing greatly due to the tiny change of the risk parameters, a method of the failure modes analysis based on the weighted evidence theory is proposed from the perspective of the methodology of dealing with the uncertainty problem. The method qualifies the epistemic uncertainty existing in the expert evaluation of the risk parameters into the basic belief assignment and expert attribute weight respectively, and the information propagation and processing of the epistemic uncertainty is solved, and the ordered arrangement of the criticality analysis of the fault modes is eventually achieved. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the case analysis and comparison with the existing research results.

Key words: weighted evidence theory, failure modes effect and criticality analysis, epistemic uncertainty, risk priority number, electronic system

中图分类号:

TB114.3

邵璐璐, 韩继红, 牛侃, 刘小虎, 邵芳. 基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(5): 782-791.

Shao Lulu, Han Jihong, Niu Kan, Liu Xiaohu, Shao Fang. Research on Failure Modes Analysis Based on Weighted Evidence Theory[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(5): 782-791.

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基于加权证据理论的故障模式分析方法研究

Research on Failure Modes Analysis Based on Weighted Evidence Theory

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