Research on Emergency Risk Decision Simulation Based on Multi-agent and Prospect Theory

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0153

Abstract

Abstract: Focusing on the modeling and the simulation of emergency response risk decision that multi-sections involve in, a simulation model and simulation framework based on multi-agent and prospect theory are proposed. By introducing agent theory, the multi-agent architecture model of emergency risk decision is described and the decision agent are modelled. By introducing prospect theory, following the dynamic evolution of emergencies, the impact of the psychological changes of the decision-makers have on the decision results is studied. The multi-agent emergency risk decision simulation framework is designed and implemented. Taking the risk decision of a fire emergency in the petrochemical plants as an example, the availability and the feasibility of the model and the framework are verified.

Key words: multi-agent, BDI(Belief-Desire-Intention), prospect theory, emergency risk decision, modeling and simulation

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Wang Jian, Situ Chenqi, Yuan Shengqiang. Research on Emergency Risk Decision Simulation Based on Multi-agent and Prospect Theory[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(3): 353-361.

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